Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
