Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
